I grow people and businesses.
I led M&A for a billion-dollar company, helped scale a bootstrapped business to the top of the Inc. 5000, and now run Outperform Ventures. This is where I write down what I've learned about business, investing and leadership.
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Latest writing
All writingOct 20, 2026
How to Spot a Bubble, According to Ray Dalio
Bubbles take years to form and years to burst. Ray Dalio's six questions for spotting one, what history teaches, and the three things I think are sustainable today and the three I think aren't.
Oct 20, 2026
Why the Energy Trade Can Work for Years
The war has gone on long enough to change the floor. Between damaged supply, low storage, tighter fuel trade and winter, I think higher oil prices are here for a long time, much like inflation after COVID.
Oct 20, 2026
Where Software Engineers Will Work Next
Software vendors need fewer engineers. The companies leaving those vendors need more of their own. I think millions of engineers and marketers move from selling technology to running it inside businesses.
Oct 20, 2026
Why ARR Is Over in the Age of AI
Companies spend on AI in bursts, a heavy build followed by light upkeep. A flat yearly renewal no longer matches that, and neither does a metric built around it.
Oct 19, 2026
Why Elon Musk and Anthropic Are Giving Away Shares
AI is making the people who own it richer, fast, while people with only a paycheck fall behind. A SpaceX share for every child and Anthropic's fund are a step in the right direction, not a fix. I think these companies see something coming that the rest of us don't yet.
Oct 19, 2026
What Berkshire's Bending Spoons Bet Says About Software
Bending Spoons buys software brands cheaply and runs them for profit, and the market values it at about four times what typical SaaS gets. Next to services companies selling for 20 times EBITDA, it shows where software value is moving: to brands and to businesses that are hard to copy.